The 2028 Presidential Hopefuls: Who’s Got Next?
From establishment favorites to dark horse disruptors, here’s who could run—and win—in 2028
After the shockwaves of the 2024 election and its aftermath, both major parties are staring at a rare wide-open presidential race in 2028. For the first time in a generation, neither an incumbent president nor a dominant heir apparent is poised to clear the field. Democrats are regrouping after losing the White House in 2024, eager to turn the page and find a standard-bearer who can win it back. Republicans, meanwhile, will see President Donald Trump term-limited out, setting off a scramble to lead the post-Trump GOP into the future.
Democratic Hopefuls for 2028
The Democratic bench is both crowded and uncertain after 2024. With Joe Biden’s tenure over and Vice President Kamala Harris having led the ticket in 2024 (only to fall short against Trump), there’s no consensus front-runner. Several big names are jostling for prominence, from progressive coastal leaders to moderate heartland governors. Here are the five Democratic figures best positioned as of now, ranked by their viability for 2028 – along with a dark horse who just might emerge.
1. Kamala Harris – Former Vice President, 2024 Nominee
Kamala Harris speaks at a 2024 campaign rally during her presidential run.
Kamala Harris occupies a unique position in Democratic politics. As the former vice president and the party’s 2024 presidential nominee, she has unmatched name recognition and a loyal following among core Democratic constituencies. Strengths: Harris made history as the first woman and first woman of color VP, and many Democrats remain proud of that milestone. She’s a skilled debater and campaigner – her single vice-presidential debate against Trump in 2024 was widely seen as a strong performance, reminding Democrats of her tenacity. Harris also has deep ties to the party establishment and donors after years in the Senate and White House. Simply put, if she runs again, she starts with a base of supporters who feel she was dealt a tough hand in 2024 and deserve a second shot.
Challenges: Harris’s biggest hurdle is the baggage of 2024. She lost that election, and fairly or not, some in the party question if she can win a general election after a landslide defeat. The campaign exposed her shortcomings: critics argue she never quite shook off the public’s mixed perceptions from her vice presidency – remember, her approval ratings as VP were lukewarm. There were concerns about her handling of certain issues (the border, for instance) and a narrative (pushed aggressively by Republicans) that she was ineffective. Additionally, Harris may face competition from fresher Democratic faces who argue the party needs to move past the Biden-Harris era. Even some Harris allies are reportedly debating whether she should try something else – say, running for California governor – rather than risk another bruising presidential run. In short, Harris has the name ID and experience, but she’ll have to prove she can unite the party and overcome the stigma of her 2024 loss if she wants another chance at the nomination.
2. Gavin Newsom – Governor of California
Gavin Newsom has been acting every bit the national candidate-in-waiting. Strengths: The California governor is charismatic, media-savvy, and unabashedly liberal – a darling of the party’s progressive wing but with enough pragmatic streak to appeal broadly. Term-limited in 2026, Newsom has spent his time crisscrossing the country (including some conspicuously early stops in key primary states like South Carolina) boosting Democrats and, not coincidentally, boosting his own profile. He’s got notable accomplishments to tout: under his leadership, California has enacted aggressive climate policies, expanded health care, and protected abortion rights, allowing him to claim he’s been doing the things national Democrats talk about. Newsom also proved he’s a tenacious fighter willing to spar with Republicans on their turf – remember his public feuds with Ron DeSantis, even running ads in Florida touting California’s governance? That combative energy excites Democrats hungry for bold leadership. In early-state visits, Newsom has drawn enthusiastic crowds, suggesting he can transfer some West Coast star power to primary voters elsewhere.
Challenges: “The California Problem.” Newsom hails from the bluest of blue states, and in places like Iowa or South Carolina, not everyone is enamored with “California values.” He’ll have to overcome the perception (and Republican attack lines) that California is a land of excessive liberalism – think high taxes, homelessness issues, “woke” politics – out of touch with middle America. Even some Democrats privately worry that Newsom’s San Francisco background and polished style could alienate working-class voters in the Rust Belt who are crucial in a general election. He’ll need to demonstrate he’s more than a slick coastal politician by connecting with heartland voters and moderates. Additionally, within the party, Newsom could collide with Kamala Harris’s base – they’re from the same state, and Harris loyalists might not appreciate a challenge from a fellow Californian if she runs. There’s also the simple fact that Newsom hasn’t been through a national campaign yet; under the spotlight, how will he handle inevitable scrutiny of his record (for example, the pandemic lockdowns or the infamous French Laundry incident)? Still, despite these hurdles, Newsom’s profile and ambition make him a top-tier contender and perhaps the leading male candidate on the Democratic side.
3. Pete Buttigieg – Former Mayor & Cabinet Secretary
Pete Buttigieg is no longer the fresh-faced outsider from 2020, but he’s still a formidable potential candidate with a unique appeal. Strengths: The former South Bend mayor-turned-Transportation Secretary has proven campaign chops – he did win the most delegates in the 2020 Iowa caucuses and gave Biden a serious run in early states that year. Buttigieg, now in his mid-40s by 2028, represents generational change and has a talent for communicating complex ideas in relatable terms (his sound bites often go viral because he’s adept at staying calm and logical under fire). During his stint in the Biden administration, he traveled the country touting infrastructure investments, which earned him goodwill among local officials and plenty of TV time. He’s also one of the most prominent openly gay figures in U.S. politics; his husband Chasten and he became familiar faces nationwide, and their personal story resonates with many Americans. Buttigieg’s moderate, pragmatic brand of politics could attract both centrist Democrats and younger voters looking for a post-Biden/Harris era leader. He’s essentially been running an extended national introduction for years now – and he’s shrewdly maintained relationships in Iowa and New Hampshire, visiting those early states and staying in touch with his supporter network. Few other contenders can match his blend of policy wonkery and calm charisma on the debate stage.
Challenges: “Mayor Pete” still faces questions about his ability to connect with key Democratic constituencies, especially Black voters. In 2020, his campaign struggled to win support from African American Democrats, a major reason his momentum fizzled after the mostly white early states. He’ll need to show that he’s grown and can build a truly diverse coalition. His record as Transportation Secretary was a mixed bag – while he oversaw a historic infrastructure rollout, he also got criticism for supply chain snarls, airline meltdowns, and the East Palestine train derailment response. Republicans will certainly tag him with any perceived failures of the Biden administration. Additionally, while Buttigieg’s youth was an asset eight years ago, by 2028 some Democrats might instead prioritize executive experience or a proven ability to win tough races – something he still lacks beyond the city level. There’s also the lingering prejudice issue: as groundbreaking as his candidacy is, there are unfortunately still voters (even some Democrats and many independents) for whom a gay candidate is a hurdle. Buttigieg will likely shrug that off and focus on issues, but it’s a factor in some minds. All told, Pete brings intellect, eloquence, and a fresh perspective – but he’ll have to convince Democrats that he’s the one who can rebuild the diverse Obama-style coalition needed to win nationally.
4. Gretchen Whitmer – Governor of Michigan
Gretchen Whitmer is often mentioned in Democratic circles as exactly the kind of battleground-state leader the party might need. Strengths: As the twice-elected governor of Michigan, Whitmer has bona fide swing-state credentials. She won her 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial races by healthy margins in a purple state, demonstrating appeal to the kind of Midwestern voters Democrats must recapture. Whitmer’s leadership in Michigan produced tangible progressive wins – from fixing roads (her famous “Fix the Damn Roads” slogan became reality in many projects) to protecting labor rights and expanding education programs. She also handled crises adeptly, becoming nationally known for her steady response to the COVID-19 pandemic and even a foiled extremist plot to kidnap her – an ordeal that she emerged from unbowed, earning her a reputation for toughness. Whitmer’s personable, plain-spoken style and “Big Gretch” persona connect well with everyday folks. Importantly, she brings a geographic balance to a field heavy with coastal contenders, and as a Midwestern woman with a record of winning crossover votes, she could make a compelling general election nominee. If Harris (or other women of color) aren’t in the race, Whitmer would likely also have strong appeal to women voters energized by abortion rights – an issue she campaigned on successfully in Michigan.
Challenges: Timing and national profile. Whitmer has been cautious about her national moves so far, focusing on governing Michigan. She hasn’t been touring early primary states (at least not yet, since she’s currently concentrating on finishing her second term which ends in 2026). This could put her a bit behind flashier contenders in terms of early organization. Additionally, Michigan’s results in 2024 under Harris were disappointing for Democrats (the state stayed blue in the presidential race but by a slimmer margin, and Dems lost their slim control of the state House). Some might unfairly knock Whitmer for not delivering a bigger Democratic wave at home – though factors far beyond her control were at play. On policy, while Whitmer is broadly popular in Michigan, Republicans will surely dredge up resentment from the pandemic era (remember those armed protests at the Michigan capitol against her COVID restrictions?). Her stringent lockdown measures, while arguably saved lives, angered conservatives and could be used to rally GOP base against her. Within a Democratic primary, Whitmer also has to compete with better-known figures – she’s not a household name nationally in the way Harris or Newsom are. She’ll need to raise her profile quickly if she decides to jump in after her gubernatorial term. In sum, Whitmer’s proven electability and steady leadership are big pluses, but she must carve out mindshare in a potentially crowded field and avoid being seen as too regionally focused or dull compared to more charismatic rivals.
5. Andy Beshear – Governor of Kentucky
Andy Beshear is perhaps the most intriguing new contender on Democrats’ radar. As a popular Democratic governor in a deep-red state, Beshear has a narrative that’s catnip to those fretting about electability. Strengths: Beshear has proven he can win over conservative voters – he just secured a second term as Kentucky’s governor, triumphing in 2023 despite his state’s heavy Republican lean. That victory showed his personal appeal and political skill in connecting with voters who might not normally consider a Democrat. He’s a centrist, pragmatic Democrat with a down-to-earth style, often talking about “kitchen table” issues like jobs, education, and health care rather than national partisan battles. In fact, Beshear’s tenure has been marked by a focus on disaster response (guiding his state through tornadoes and floods), economic development (bringing manufacturing jobs to Kentucky), and even some bipartisanship. He’s also been a defender of social issues in hostile territory – for instance, vetoing anti-abortion and anti-transgender bills (even though the GOP legislature overrode some vetoes). That willingness to do the right thing in a tough environment has earned him quiet respect from progressives, even if he’s hardly a left-wing firebrand. If Beshear runs for president, he’d argue that Democrats can compete everywhere – even in Trump country – by focusing on competence and compassion. His mild-mannered, empathetic demeanor could contrast well against fire-breathing Republicans, and he could appeal to moderate independents and disaffected GOP voters in a general election. Plus, let’s not overlook the electoral map: Beshear as nominee could put his home state Kentucky (normally a write-off for Dems) in play or at least force Republicans to spend a bit defending it, and he might boost Democratic chances in other Appalachian or Southern-leaning swing states with culturally similar voters.
Challenges: Low national name recognition and primary dynamics. Outside of Kentucky and political-junkie circles, Andy Beshear isn’t well known – he’ll have to introduce himself to Democratic voters who may barely know their own governor, let alone Kentucky’s. He also doesn’t fit the mold of the activist-favorite candidate; he’s moderate on many issues, which could make the progressive base lukewarm. In a primary, Beshear would likely position himself as a unifier who can win red areas – but when Democratic voters are angry and fired up, sometimes they gravitate toward bolder, more ideological choices (just ask all the moderate candidates who lost to more outspoken liberals in past primaries). He’ll have to show he’s not just Joe Manchin 2.0 – i.e., not simply a conservative Democrat – and articulate a vision that energizes urban and younger voters too. Also, Beshear has never faced the grind of a national campaign; a folksy style works in Kentucky, but under the bright lights of a presidential primary, he’ll be tested on foreign policy, national social issues, and more. Can he hold his own on a debate stage against sharper-elbowed opponents? Finally, as a white male centrist, Beshear might not scratch the itch of Democrats looking for historic firsts or more diversity at the top of the ticket (especially if the memory of Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016 and Harris’s loss in 2024 leads some to argue for another approach). Nonetheless, Andy Beshear’s extraordinary success in Kentucky and his message of inclusive, competent leadership make him a serious dark-horse turned top-five contender in this field.
Dark Horse: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – Congresswoman from New York
No list of Democratic possibilities would be complete without at least pondering the dark horse candidacy of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The firebrand congresswoman from the Bronx would be a long-shot for the presidency – but one cannot ignore her influence and potential to upend the race if she chose to run. What she brings: AOC, as she’s universally known, is the undisputed superstar of the party’s progressive left and beloved by a huge segment of young Democrats. At 39 in 2028, she’d represent a new generation of leadership. She’s a talented communicator, with an almost unrivaled ability to command social media and energize the grassroots. On policy, Ocasio-Cortez has already shaped the national conversation (think Green New Deal) and would bring bold ideas to a presidential platform. If Democratic voters in 2028 crave vision and inspiration over caution, AOC could vault into contention and pull the field toward her ideas. She also has shown skill in retail politics – charismatic and personable in settings from rallies to congressional hearings – so one can imagine her surprising pundits with strong debate or town-hall performances.
Prospects and cons: Let’s be real – Ocasio-Cortez would face an uphill battle. She’s never run statewide, let alone nationally, and even some sympathetic Democrats question if 2028 is too soon for her to go for the big prize. The moderate wing of the party would likely coalesce to stop what they’d see as a surefire general election disaster (Republicans would gleefully cast her as a “socialist” menace). Indeed, the “socialist” label and her polarizing profile in conservative media means an AOC nomination might drive some centrists right into the GOP’s arms. She’d also have to contend with rivals who have executive experience (governors, former cabinet members) when she’s “only” been a House member. Still, stranger things have happened in politics, and AOC’s potential candidacy keeps establishment Democrats up at night and activists daydreaming in equal measure. She insists she’s focused on legislating for now – but if no progressive champion emerges in the primary, pressure could mount on her to run. And even if she doesn’t run for president, her endorsement and influence will loom large. In short, Ocasio-Cortez remains the ultimate Democratic dark horse: unlikely to win the nomination in 2028, but possessing the star power to dramatically shape the race’s direction if she jumps in.
Republican Hopefuls for 2028
On the Republican side, the landscape is defined by Trump – and the impending vacuum after Trump. Having recaptured the White House in 2024, Donald Trump is constitutionally barred from a third term, so the GOP primary in 2028 will be the first in ages without an incumbent or presumptive nominee. However, Trump’s presence will still loom large: he’s likely to play kingmaker, and the party’s base is still very much the MAGA base. Many ambitious Republicans held their fire in 2024 out of loyalty or fear of Trump; those same figures (and some new ones) are now maneuvering to inherit the throne. The field could include Trump’s allies, former officials, and a few outsiders trying to steer the party in a new direction. Here are five top contenders, ranked by viability in the post-Trump scramble, followed by a GOP dark horse who could surprise.
1. J.D. Vance – Vice President of the United States
Vice President J.D. Vance speaks at a U.S. Naval Academy graduation ceremony in 2025.
It’s astonishing how quickly J.D. Vance’s star has risen. Just a few years ago, he was known mainly as the “Hillbilly Elegy” author; by 2025, he’s the Vice President and, if you ask many Republicans, the heir apparent to Donald Trump. Strengths: Vance has the pole position thanks to Trump’s patronage – Trump handpicked him as running mate in 2024, elevating the freshman Ohio senator to national office and effectively anointing him as the MAGA torchbearer. As VP, Vance has kept a high profile: he’s been traveling the country on Air Force Two, headlining fundraisers, and even took on the unusual dual role as RNC finance chair, which means he’s building chits with donors and state party officials everywhere. In short, he’s using the office as a springboard for 2028. Vance’s appeal to the Republican base is easy to understand: he presents the Trump agenda with a fresh face and an Ivy League polish. He’s a true believer in Trump’s nationalist, populist message – tough on trade and immigration, anti-“woke,” and unabashedly confrontational with the left – yet he articulates it in a measured, articulate manner that can win over skeptical moderates. Many in the GOP see Vance as offering Trumpism without Trump, which could be the magic formula: keep the base energized but avoid some of Trump’s chaos. Polls already show Vance as a front-runner for 2028, with a sizable chunk of Republican voters essentially ready to carry over their loyalty to him. Being the sitting VP also gives him unparalleled visibility and the chance to rack up accomplishments (or at least claim them) as part of the administration. If Trump gives even a tacit nod Vance’s way, that could seal the deal – plenty of MAGA diehards recall Don Jr.’s famous rally line in 2024: “We’re getting four more years of Trump, and then eight years of J.D. Vance!” Many took that to heart.
Challenges: The flip side of being the chosen one is you’ve got a target on your back. Every ambitious Republican who hungers for the presidency knows Vance is the man to beat. He’ll likely face attacks from all sides in a primary: the more traditional conservatives will question if he’s electable beyond the MAGA base or paint him as too extreme, while any rogue MAGA rivals might whisper that Vance isn’t quite Trump-y enough (after all, Vance did famously criticize Trump in the past before converting to a loyalist – expect those old quotes to resurface). Vance also carries the baggage of the Trump administration’s record. By 2028, if there are any stumbles – an economic downturn, a foreign policy crisis, or even just Trump fatigue – Vance can’t easily distance himself, he’s part of that team. Additionally, let’s remember he’s still relatively new to politics; he’s never run a campaign on his own beyond one Senate race in Ohio. How will he perform when he’s the prime target on a debate stage without Trump overshadowing everyone? There’s also an X-factor: Trump himself. While Trump has indicated he likes Vance, he’s been coy about outright endorsing a successor and could just as easily change tune or remain neutral, leaving Vance to prove he can command the base’s loyalty on his own. And of course, the dynastic wildcard – if a Trump family member (see our dark horse below) decided to run, it could siphon some of the MAGA faithful away. All said, Vance begins as the nominal front-runner and has a strong claim to being the continuity candidate for Trump’s movement – but he’ll have to earn it in what could become a very crowded, contentious GOP primary.
2. Ron DeSantis – Governor of Florida
Ron DeSantis enters the 2028 chat as something of a redeemed figure – or at least a persistent one. By 2028, DeSantis will be a former governor (his term in Florida ends in early 2027) with plenty of time to plot a comeback after his disappointing 2024 primary effort. Strengths: Don’t count “Ron DeFuture” out just yet. DeSantis built a national following as a hard-charging conservative governor who delivered a mountain of right-wing policy victories in a once swingy state. He won re-election in Florida by a landslide in 2022, proving his ability to dominate even in what used to be a battleground – that’s appealing to Republicans who crave winners. His record – from aggressively confronting COVID-19 restrictions (Florida was one of the first to fully reopen) to taking on “woke indoctrination” in schools and corporations – reads like a checklist of GOP base priorities. In fact, many of the culture war themes that animate the party today were amplified by DeSantis: fights with Disney over gender and sexuality issues, shipping migrants to liberal enclaves to make a point on immigration, banning critical race theory, and so on. Policy aside, DeSantis also amassed a powerful donor network and a formidable campaign war chest in ’24 that could reactivate for ’28. Crucially, he has executive experience running a large, complex state – something not all his rivals can claim – and can argue he’d be ready to be president on day one. After Trump is gone from the scene, some Republicans may be looking for a leader with a bit more discipline and less baggage; DeSantis hopes to be exactly that, pitching himself as the candidate who can implement the Trump agenda more effectively and without constant drama. If he mends fences with the Trump-aligned base (he did ultimately endorse Trump in the 2024 general and appeared at campaign events to show unity), DeSantis could reemerge as the main alternative if any doubts about Vance or others arise.
Challenges: DeSantis learned the hard way in 2024 that being hyped as the next big thing can lead to a brutal fall. His primary campaign against Trump never got off the ground – he was outmaneuvered and brutally branded (who can forget Trump dubbing him “Ron DeSanctimonious”) and ultimately exited with his image bruised. That means in 2028, he’ll have to shake off the loser label. Some in the party now see him as awkward on the stump and not ready for prime time, impressions that can be lasting. He has to improve his retail politicking and charisma; by many accounts, he struggled in connecting personally with voters and mega-donors alike. Another concern: the shadow of Trump’s disdain. Even if Trump himself isn’t running, if he harbors a grudge against DeSantis for challenging him, he could freeze Ron out of MAGA world’s good graces with a few Truth Social posts. And let’s face it, plenty of Trump’s loyal base voters have bought into the narrative that DeSantis is disloyal – it won’t be easy for him to win them back, even with Trump out of the race. Moreover, other contenders (Vance, for instance) have stolen some of DeSantis’s thunder by embracing the same culture-war issues. DeSantis will need to differentiate what new vision he offers for 2028 beyond “I was a really conservative governor.” International or economic policy chops, perhaps? So far, those haven’t been areas where he’s stood out strongly. In a primary, opponents will also dredge up some of his less popular moves – e.g., a six-week abortion ban in Florida that, while pleasing the base, could be a liability in a general election or even with some moderate primary voters. Still, all things considered, Governor DeSantis remains a heavyweight. If he can recapture the magic that once had donors calling him “Trump with a brain,” he could be a formidable contender in a second go-around. 2028 may well be DeSantis’s last, best shot to claim the mantle of party leader that once seemed his for the taking.
3. Marco Rubio – Secretary of State & Former Senator
Marco Rubio has achieved something of a political resurrection in the second Trump administration. The one-time youthful face of the GOP establishment is now serving as Secretary of State – and Trump himself has floated Rubio as a “great” future leader. Strengths: Experience and newfound MAGA credibility. Rubio is one of the most seasoned figures who could run: by 2028 he will have been a U.S. Senator for 12 years and Secretary of State for four, giving him a deep resume in foreign policy and national security that none of his rivals can match. In a field that might be heavy on fiery rhetoric but light on governing expertise, Rubio can claim he’s dealt with China, Russia, Iran – you name it – firsthand. He’s traveled the world representing the U.S., negotiated deals, and handled crises. That statesman image could appeal to Republicans who want competence with their conservatism. Moreover, Rubio has carefully aligned himself with Trump over the years, turning from a 2016 rival who once mocked Trump’s hand size (yes, we all remember “Little Marco”) into a staunch ally. He backed Trump in both impeachments, parroted many of Trump’s talking points, and that loyalty paid off with his high-profile cabinet post. So, despite his past life as a champion of the GOP establishment, much of the base now views Rubio with far less suspicion than, say, a Mitt Romney type. Trump publicly praising Rubio as doing an “outstanding job” as SecState is practically a golden ticket in a primary – it signals to MAGA voters that Rubio is approved by the boss. Additionally, Rubio still has some assets from his old playbook: he’s an eloquent speaker (his oratory in both English and Spanish is a plus), which could shine in debates, and his personal story as the son of Cuban immigrants remains compelling to many. Don’t overlook Florida either: even with DeSantis in the mix, Rubio as a popular figure from vote-rich Florida could be helpful, and he might imagine doing better across the Sun Belt with Hispanic voters. If he can fuse his establishment-friendly polish with Trumpian populist themes, Rubio could try to assemble a broad coalition within the GOP.
Challenges: The question for Rubio is whether the party base really wants to turn to someone they once rejected as too “establishment” and, frankly, whether his more nuanced brand of conservatism fits the post-Trump mood. Yes, he’s in Trump’s cabinet, but one can easily see opponents hitting him as not a true believer – for instance, Rubio used to champion immigration reform (the 2013 “Gang of Eight” bill), which hardliners despised. You can bet that will be dredged up to sow doubt among MAGA voters about Rubio’s commitment to the Trump agenda on immigration. Similarly, while Rubio has supported Trump, he occasionally shows flashes of independence (like subtly criticizing some of Trump’s more erratic moves on foreign policy or being less bombastic on culture wars). In a heated primary, nuance isn’t necessarily rewarded. Also, despite his role as SecState, Rubio might not have any signature achievements to point to – foreign policy in the Trump 2.0 era has largely been about managing crises and projecting toughness, but if there have been controversies or unmet challenges (say, North Korea acting up, or instability in some region), rivals might pin blame on Rubio. Another significant factor: charisma and fervor. Rubio’s style is still more conventional and optimistic, not the red-meat populist anger that fires up crowds. In 2016, that made him seem lightweight next to Trump’s bluster. In 2028, he’ll have to avoid appearing like the old GOP in a party that has changed so much. Remember, he was once the future of the party’s more inclusive vision – talking about civility, opportunity, and the American Dream. It’s wonderful stuff, but does it resonate in a party whose activists may be more interested in fighting the left at every turn? Rubio might also face the generational squeeze: at 57 in 2028, he’s hardly old, but he’s no longer the fresh face either, and younger figures like Vance or others could steal the spotlight. Bottom line: Marco Rubio has positioned himself cleverly and will be one of the most qualified candidates on paper, with a possible nod from Trump to boot. Yet he’ll need to overcome skepticism from the base’s right flank and recapture the imagination of voters who have gravitated toward flashier figures in recent cycles.
4. Glenn Youngkin – Governor of Virginia
Glenn Youngkin might just be the most interesting Republican not named Trump in this race. The Virginia governor represents a different flavor of Republican – one who has shown he can win in blue-ish territory without fully embracing the Trump playbook, yet manage not to alienate Trump supporters either. Strengths:Electability and appeal to moderates. Youngkin pulled off a big upset in 2021 by winning the governorship of Virginia, a state Biden had carried by 10 points. He did it with a savvy campaign that spoke to suburban parents (remember his focus on education and parental rights in schools) while also quietly keeping Trump’s base on board. As a result, Youngkin has a reputation as someone who can broaden the GOP’s appeal, particularly with the kind of suburban voters who drifted away during the Trump years. In a general election, that is gold – Republicans dreaming of taking back states like Virginia, or holding Georgia and Arizona, might see Youngkin as their guy. He has a genial, upbeat persona (often sporting that fleece vest uniform) and comes across as sane and steady, which donors and business-types appreciate. But don’t mistake his friendliness for lack of conservatism: Youngkin has governed as a conservative in Virginia, pushing tax cuts, promoting school choice, banning “critical race theory” (in concept at least) from schools, and so on. He’s walked a fine line on election integrity nonsense – carefully not endorsing wild fraud claims but supporting tighter voting laws – which allows him to appeal to the MAGA crowd without diving into the fever swamps. By 2028, he’ll be out of office (VA governors can’t serve back-to-back terms) and presumably looking for his next challenge. He’s been keeping his national profile alive, even making trips to places like Iowa to help local Republicans, which certainly looks like laying groundwork. If GOP primary voters decide they want a winner who’s somewhat removed from Trump’s chaos but still delivers conservative governance, Youngkin could surge. He’s also personally wealthy (a former private equity executive), so fundraising or self-funding won’t be an issue.
Challenges: The big question for Youngkin is whether the Republican primary electorate in 2028 will prioritize electability and mild manners – or whether they’ll still be in fight mode wanting a flamethrower. If it’s the latter, Youngkin could struggle to inspire passion. Some in the base might find him too polished, too moderate in tone. His reluctance to fully embrace Trump’s more extreme claims could be painted by opponents as insufficient loyalty. Also, his experience, while significant as a governor, is limited to one term and focused on one state’s issues; he’ll have to beef up his credentials on national security, federal issues, etc. There’s also a timing aspect: Youngkin flirted with jumping into the 2024 race late (after many saw how Trump dominated the field), but ultimately didn’t – perhaps wisely. Still, by waiting for 2028, he’s giving others the chance to claim the “Trump alternative” mantle. He won’t be alone in that lane; he’ll likely compete with the likes of Haley, Kemp, or others aiming for a similar donor class and moderate conservative voters. Youngkin will have to distinguish himself perhaps as the one with true crossover appeal. One more challenge: Virginia itself didn’t go red in the 2024 presidential race (Trump narrowed the margin but still lost it). And in Youngkin’s governorship, while he remained personally popular, the 2023 state elections didn’t produce the big Republican sweep he campaigned for (Dems won back the state Senate, GOP held the House by a thread). Critics might say he hasn’t proven he can boost GOP fortunes outside of his own race. Finally, being a successful Republican in a blue state often means there are a few policy positions or moments of pragmatism that hardliners could nitpick – Youngkin will likely face some purity tests on things like how far he went on abortion restrictions (he pushed for a 15-week ban in VA, which some hardcore pro-lifers might say isn’t strict enough). In summary, Glenn Youngkin offers a vision of a post-Trump GOP that can actually win tough races. It remains to be seen if GOP primary voters in 2028 will reward that vision or stick with more familiar red meat. If the party’s in a mood to actually win the White House for a third consecutive term (something not done since 1988), they might give the guy in the fleece a serious look.
5. Nikki Haley – Former U.N. Ambassador & Governor of South Carolina
Nikki Haley is nothing if not persistent. The former South Carolina governor and U.N. Ambassador has already run for president once – sticking it out in the 2024 primaries longer than anyone else against Trump – and she’s signaled she’s not done yet. Strengths: Haley brings a unique profile and considerable experience to the table. She’s a woman of color (Indian-American) in a party that could use some diversity at the top, and she’s adept at telling her personal “American Dream” story in a way that resonates. As U.N. Ambassador, she got foreign policy credentials and a reputation for standing up to America’s adversaries (few can forget her fiery speeches on the Security Council floor defending Israel or condemning North Korea). That toughness on the world stage endears her to the GOP’s hawkish wing. Domestically, as a two-term governor of SC, Haley had a solid conservative record – cutting taxes, battling unions, and so forth – while also showing moments of unity and compassion (for example, removing the Confederate flag from the SC statehouse after the 2015 church shooting, which earned her national praise). In the 2024 primary cycle, Haley distinguished herself as the last real challenger standing against Trump, and even though she eventually had to bow out and endorse him, she earned some goodwill from anti-Trump Republicans for at least making the effort. By 2028, with Trump out of the picture, Haley could appeal as a candidate who champions Trump’s policies minus his baggage, somewhat like DeSantis or Youngkin, but with the bonus of her background and a more traditional Republican demeanor. She is also relatively young (mid-50s in 2028) and energetic. Importantly, she has strong support in her home state of South Carolina, which holds an early primary – if she can win there, it gives her a springboard. In debates, Haley has shown a knack for sharp, prepared answers and occasionally zinging opponents. And let’s not underestimate the potential historic nature: she’d be the first woman nominated by the GOP for president. That’s not a core selling point to the base, but in a general election it could soften the party’s image where it badly needs it (with women and minority voters).
Challenges: Haley’s toughest obstacle is the lingering suspicion within the MAGA base. In 2024, a chunk of Republican voters simply never gave her a serious look because they saw her as insufficiently loyal to Trump (she had criticized him at times, then embraced him, then ran against him – that journey created doubt). She ultimately did endorse Trump, but not until after trading barbs with him in the primary; Trump, known for holding grudges, conspicuously did not give her a prominent role in his second administration. In fact, she was basically frozen out – no cabinet post, no special assignment. That could speak volumes to MAGA die-hards: if Trump didn’t bring Nikki back into the fold, why should they? She might be viewed as yesterday’s news or worse, a traitor (unfair as that may be given she served him and then supported him). Additionally, other Republicans might question Haley’s core principles. They might say she tailors her message to whatever the party mood is – tough-on-Trump in 2021, then pro-Trump later, etc. Haley’s attempt to have it both ways could haunt her with the “authenticity” issue. Policy-wise, she’s a traditional conservative (pro-business, hawkish foreign policy) which doesn’t exactly excite the populist economic wing that wants tariffs and maybe less foreign entanglement. Remember, she’s more John McCain than Donald Trump when it comes to, say, Russia (she’s very hawkish on Putin) or free trade (she championed Boeing and BMW in SC and generally likes free markets). Those stances might clash with where the GOP base is today. Another challenge is simply standing out. In a crowded field, Haley risks being seen as a second-tier figure – she’s not the sitting VP like Vance, not a current governor with recent wins like DeSantis or Youngkin, not a fresh face. She’s run before and lost; sometimes primary voters cast aside previous runners (though Biden proved otherwise on the Dem side eventually). For Haley, the key will be to reintroduce herself in a post-Trump context and persuade Republicans that she offers the winning combination of toughness, experience, and a new image for the party. It’s a tough sell, but if she can rally support in key early states (Iowa, New Hampshire, and especially her own South Carolina), she could be a contender. Still, given the internal dynamics, Haley currently sits on the edge of the top tier – viable, but needing some breaks or a change in the winds to truly surge.
Dark Horse: Donald Trump Jr. – Businessman & Presidential Son
In a Trump-dominated GOP, it’s only fitting that our Republican dark horse is literally a Trump. Donald Trump Jr., the former president’s eldest son and MAGA folk hero in his own right, would be an unconventional and surprising candidate – but one who could shake up the race overnight. The case for Don Jr.: He has something no other candidate can rival: the last name Trump. That alone guarantees intense media attention and a devoted following of grassroots supporters who have basically turned Don Jr. into an icon. He’s been one of the loudest surrogates for his father, whipping up crowds at rallies with red meat lines and an us-versus-them fervor that mirrors the elder Trump’s style. In many ways, Trump Jr. is seen by the MAGA base as the living embodiment of Trumpism – minus, perhaps, some of his father’s more restrained impulses (if Dad is unfiltered, Junior is even more so). If he were to run, a sizable chunk of the Republican base might immediately gravitate to him out of loyalty to the family brand. Polls taken right after the 2024 election actually showed Trump Jr. as a favored 2028 choice among many Republicans (his name ID is sky high, and there’s a genuine emotional attachment from a segment of voters). He’s never held office, sure, but neither had dear old Dad when he started – and outsider appeal still counts for something. Also, throughout Trump’s second term, Don Jr. has reportedly been very involved behind the scenes as an adviser and enforcer in the administration, helping vet personnel and push the agenda. That means he might claim he has the experience by proximity, and at least some idea of what the job entails. Imagine a campaign rally with the Trump name on the banner but “Jr.” at the end – it would still pull massive crowds and media coverage. If the MAGA base feels like none of the other candidates fully capture the 45 magic, a Draft Don Jr. movement could gain steam. And if Donald Sr.himself were to bless his son’s run, that could be a game changer, essentially creating a dynasty scenario.
Why it’s unlikely (and risky): Donald Trump Jr. has thus far said he isn’t interested in running for office, and he’s never had to put himself to the test of a campaign personally. There’s a huge difference between being the fiery warm-up act and being the candidate in the spotlight. He’d face withering scrutiny — every aspect of his life, business dealings, personal controversies (of which there are several: divorce, admitted past drug use, endless Twitter wars, etc.) would be dragged out. And while he can handle hostile interviews (he often jousts with media), that’s not the same as gaining the trust of voters beyond the hardcore base. The Republican establishment would likely panic at a Trump Jr. candidacy, fearing it’d double down on the Trump brand negatives without the senior Trump’s proven electoral appeal. Also, other candidates would not hold back — they might point out that Don Jr. has never run anything (even his business experience running parts of the Trump Organization came under his father’s umbrella). Plus, the specter of nepotism or creating a political dynasty might turn off some Republicans who, even if they like Trump, aren’t eager to hand the keys to the kingdom to his kid as if by divine right. Let’s not forget, too, that if Don Jr. ran, it could split the MAGA vote if someone like Vance is also running for that mantle, potentially weakening the movement’s hold on the primary. And perhaps the biggest reason this is “dark horse”: Junior might not run because his father might not want him to – Donald Sr. famously doesn’t like sharing the limelight. If he’d rather see someone like Vance carry on the legacy than risk his son’s loss (or independence), Don Jr. will dutifully remain a surrogate. All told, the idea of Donald Trump Jr. 2028 isn’t likely, but it’s not impossible in this era. If the unforeseen happens – say, the field is weak and clamoring for a Trump and Don Sr. truly steps aside – Junior could be lured in. And the minute he did, he would turn the race upside-down. As a dark horse, he’s the one with the DNA that half the party worships, for better or worse.
Final Thoughts: The 2028 presidential race is already shaping up to be a thriller. Both parties face a generational crossroads and ideological battles over their future. Will Democrats choose a familiar face like Harris or bet on newer blood like Newsom or Beshear? Will Republicans stick with Trumpism via Vance or look to chart a new course with someone like Youngkin or Haley? And how will those dark horses – AOC’s potential insurgency on the left, a potential Trump family encore on the right – play into the dynamic?
One thing is certain: we’re in for a long, wild ride. It might only be 2025, but the starting guns for 2028 have essentially fired. As candidates quietly (or not so quietly) court donors and voters, and as they craft narratives about why they are the one to lead America forward, we’ll be here breaking it down with the same frank, nuanced analysis you expect. Buckle up – the road to 2028 has begun, and it’s going to test both parties’ identities and resolve.
In the meantime, feel free to chime in with your thoughts: Who do you think has the edge? Which potential candidate inspires you (or worries you)? The beauty of a democracy is that nothing is set in stone – dark horses can rise, front-runners can stumble, and every once in a while, somebody totally unexpected captures the public imagination. We’ve got a front-row seat to history’s next chapter, and I, for one, can’t wait to see how it all unfolds. Let the prognostications begin!